Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent shockwaves through international circles, including across Africa, where leaders are weighing what his new administration might mean for the continent. While Trump’s previous term largely overlooked Africa, geopolitical competition with China now gives African nations an unavoidable role in the US’s global strategy.
Trump’s renewed focus on Africa is expected to centre on countering China’s influence, with projects like the US-backed Lobito Corridor likely receiving fresh attention. This corridor, designed to connect Congo, Zambia, and Angola by rail, will allow these nations to export battery metals—a sector China aims to dominate. ‘Strategic initiatives like the Lobito Corridor will continue and possibly even be increased,’ Peter Pham, Trump’s former special envoy to the Sahel, told Bloomberg in light of Trump’s re-election. The corridor may offer African countries a pathway to strengthen their economic footing while keeping China’s ambitions in check.
However, Trump is widely expected to pursue cuts to the US foreign aid budget, reflecting a longstanding Republican view that US aid often diverges from American interests. These cuts would likely have a profound impact on African nations reliant on such funds for infrastructure and development. Experts anticipate a leaner aid package that prioritises select strategic objectives rather than the broad support policies of recent administrations.
The Trump administration may also roll back policies viewed by his supporters as ‘social engineering,’ including pro-LGBTQ measures introduced by Biden. Under Biden, the US took a hard line on anti-LGBTQ legislation, even excluding Uganda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act in response to its strict anti-LGBTQ laws. A Trump reversal of these policies may relieve conservative governments but would likely incite backlash from human rights organisations.
Trump’s proposed tariff increases could add new strain to US-African trade, potentially driving up consumer prices across the continent. For African nations already grappling with high inflation and economic challenges, higher tariffs may exacerbate an already fragile cost-of-living crisis.
In a Trump second term, African countries may face a complex and sometimes contradictory US policy approach, balancing the lure of strategic investments with the challenges of economic and social policy shifts. For Africa’s leaders, the next four years represent both an opportunity and a challenge to redefine their place in Trump’s America.
A detailed analysis of Trump’s Africa policy will be published in the November-December 2024 edition of the Africa Briefing Magazine, which will be out on November 16. Stay tuned
