The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that 18 months after implementation, Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms are still struggling to deliver meaningful results.
The IMF specifically said that while macroeconomic imbalances had reduced in several countries, Nigeria had yet to show similar progress.
These were contained in the IMF latest report on the economic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa that was presented on Friday, at the Lagos Business School (LBS), in which it highlighted a mixed performance of economic reforms across the region.
The IMF specifically said that adjustment fatigue, public resistance, and weak communication strategies were undermining the impact of reforms in Nigeria.
It, however, noted considerable successes in countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Zambia, but Nigeria was conspicuously absent from the list of success stories.
The report presented by IMF Deputy Director Catherine Patillo also flagged Nigeria’s struggles with exchange rate stability, thereby highlighting it as one of the worst-performing nations in this regard.
Patillo noted that sub-Saharan Africa’s average economic growth rate is projected to remain at 3.6 per cent for 2024, adding however that Nigeria’s growth rate, was pegged at 3.19 per cent which clearly falls below this average.
Patillo also said; “More than two-thirds of countries have undertaken fiscal consolidation. The median primary balance is expected to narrow by 0.7 percentage points alone in 2024. And these have included notable improvements in Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Zambia, among others”.
The IMF said that in contrast, Nigeria’s inflation rate, which slowed briefly in July and August, resumed its upward trend in September, rising further in October, adding that at 33.8 per cent, it significantly exceeds the 21 per cent target set for 2024, with analysts predicting further increases in November and December.
The IMF noted that while other countries in the region are experiencing reduced foreign exchange pressures, Nigeria’s local currency depreciation and instability remain a concern.
It also said that debt servicing was another area of scrutiny, which Nigeria ranked among countries suffering the heaviest fiscal burden, stressing that rising debt service obligations are consuming substantial portions of revenue, thereby limiting resources available for development.
The report further said; “In Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia, this increase in interest payments alone absorbed a massive 15 per cent of total revenue.”
The IMF also painted a mixed outlook for the region’s near future but grouped Nigeria among resource-intensive countries struggling with social and political challenges that hinder reform implementation.
It said; “Political unrest, public dissatisfaction, and tight financing conditions were identified as major impediments. Resource-intensive countries continue to grow at about half the rate of the rest of the region, with oil exporters struggling the most”.
The IMF therefore recommended rethinking reform strategies and specifically urged countries like Nigeria to adopt measures that mobilise public support for deep structural changes, saying that it would require greater attention to communication and engagement strategies, reform design, compensatory measures to rebuild trust in public institutions.
