The withdrawal of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) becomes official on Wednesday, marking a critical fracture in the West African bloc amid growing political and security tensions.
The departure follows a formal notification from the three military-led nations on January 29 2024, citing their intent for an ‘immediate’ withdrawal. ECOWAS, however, required a one-year notice period, which expires this week. Calls from ECOWAS to extend the withdrawal period by six months were ignored.
‘This marks a turning point for ECOWAS,’ said Gilles Yabi, founder of the West African think tank Wathi, in comments to AFP. ‘Losing these three founding members severely weakens the organisation’s capacity to manage regional crises.’
The Alliance of Sahel States
The three nations have since formed a confederation called the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). According to their military rulers, ECOWAS’s actions after their respective coups were ‘inhuman, illegal, and illegitimate,’ especially the sanctions imposed on their economies.
‘The ECOWAS leadership is subservient to France,’ claimed one Sahelian official, referring to the nations’ shared perception of the bloc as overly influenced by their former colonial ruler. The AES, in contrast, has pivoted to forging alliances with nations like Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
The fracture between the AES and ECOWAS deepened following the July 2023 coup in Niger. ECOWAS imposed severe sanctions on Niger and threatened military intervention to reinstate the ousted president, which only solidified the resolve of the new bloc.
Strategic shifts in the region
On the same day their withdrawal became official, the AES introduced a common passport for its members and announced plans for a 5,000-strong unified military force to combat jihadist insurgencies.
‘Without these three nations, ECOWAS is not the same organisation,’ Yabi explained. ‘The loss of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso reshapes the regional dynamics completely.’
This new dynamic has also led to tensions between the AES and remaining ECOWAS members. Niger, for example, has accused Benin of harbouring jihadist training camps and alleged that Nigeria is supporting destabilisation efforts. Both nations have denied these allegations.
Togo’s growing role
Togo has emerged as a key player in this shifting landscape. The port city of Lomé is now a vital supply hub for the AES countries, many of which are landlocked.
‘Togo has a short-term vision,’ said Yabi, warning that its focus on economic opportunities could undermine ECOWAS unity. Speculation has grown over whether Togo might eventually join the AES.
‘If Togo, with its coastal access, defects, it could be a devastating blow to ECOWAS,’ remarked Rinaldo Depagne, Deputy Africa Director at the International Crisis Group (ICG).
Ghana’s engagement with the AES
Adding to the uncertainty, Ghana’s recently elected President, John Dramani Mahama, has begun outreach efforts to AES leaders. Mahama announced his intention to appoint a special envoy to the new bloc.
‘The new president does not have the same hard-line stance on military coups as his predecessors,’ Depagne noted. This shift has raised questions about whether Ghana could position itself as a bridge between ECOWAS and the AES or pursue closer ties with the Sahel alliance.
A call for reform
The fracture has prompted widespread debate on ECOWAS’s future role. Critics have urged the bloc to focus on economic cooperation rather than attempting to enforce democratic principles.
‘There is a growing awareness of the need for an “ECOWAS of the people”,’ said a former West African minister with ties to the Sahelian juntas. ‘The AES could serve as a model for reforming ECOWAS into a more functional and inclusive organisation.’
Despite their withdrawal, AES nations and ECOWAS members still face shared challenges, particularly the rise of jihadist violence. The insurgency, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, is now spreading into coastal countries like Benin and Togo.
‘The AES and ECOWAS need to strengthen their relations to preserve economic ties and address the security crisis together,’ Yabi urged.
The coming months will determine whether ECOWAS can recover from this split or whether the AES is set to redefine regional cooperation in West Africa.
